The relevance of mobile App stores in the overall VAS ecosystem across the globe is set to grow rapidly in the years to come, predicts Ovum.

While the total downloads from non-operator application stores stood at 2.69 billion in 2009, the figure is expected to rise to 21.3 billion by 2015 estimates Ovum. This reflects to a CAGR of 41%.

The emergence of competing operating systems such as Android, BlackBerry and Symbian in the App Store domain is likely to give tough time to Apple’s iPhone in the near future, predicts research firm, Ovum.

In 2009 Apple dominated the global market with 67% market share in terms of download. The figure is huge considering that Apple’s OS share in the smartphone installed base is 14%. However Nokia’s Symbian followed Apple with market share of 49% with a smartphone installed base 9%.

Ovum estimates that Apple will generate a relatively modest 22% of app downloads, compared to 19% for Symbian. Google’s Android OS is expected to increase its smartphone base from 5% to 18% penetration and its mobile application download share from 14% to 26%.

Michele Mackenzie, principal analyst at Ovum and report co-author, says, “The iPhone generates the lion’s share of smartphone app downloads but over the period we will see the share of application downloads becoming more equally distributed. Over the forecast period other smartphone platforms gain ground and by 2015 the landscape looks very different in terms of market share.”

Blackberry’s share is set to lose by 2015 while Android’s share is expected to more than triple from 5% to 17%. Microsoft may witness loss in smartphone share but is expected to double its mobile application download share.

North America will continue to dominate the market with a share of 31 % by 2015. This is however seen at a decline from the figure of 57% in 2009. Ovum expects Asia Pacific to experience the highest growth, with its share of the global market set to quadruple from 5% in the early phase to 20% by 2015. This growth will be driven by growing penetration of smartphones in the region coupled with the increased availability of applications with local relevance.

“Application stores benefit from a vast appetite for applications in this region as well as a growing smartphone base, as well as the fact that the dominant smartphone players have their roots in the North American market”, he added.